Understanding the Austin Real Estate Market: Inventory, Months of Supply, and Timing

If you have been watching the Austin real estate market lately and feeling a little confused, you are not alone. I have these conversations every single week, usually over coffee, sometimes standing in a driveway, and often with people who are smart, successful, and still wondering if now is the right time to buy or sell. So I wanted to write this like a letter, not a market report, and walk you through what is really going on in Austin in plain English.

Let’s start with inventory, because that is the word everyone keeps throwing around.

Inventory is simply how many homes are available for sale at any given time. When inventory is low, there are fewer choices for buyers and more competition. When inventory is higher, buyers have more options and sellers have to work a little harder. Austin has gone through both extremes over the last few years, which is why so many people still feel whiplash.

Right now, we are in a more balanced phase than we were during the frenzy years. Homes are available, buyers can breathe, and sellers need to be thoughtful about pricing and presentation. This is not a bad thing, even though it sometimes gets framed that way in headlines.

Now let’s talk about months of supply, because this one sounds complicated but it really is not.

Months of supply answers one simple question: if no new homes came on the market today, how long would it take to sell everything that is currently listed, based on the current pace of sales? That is it. Nothing fancy.

Here is the general rule of thumb I share with clients:
• Around 3 months or less favors sellers
• Around 5 to 6 months is considered balanced
• 7 months or more tends to favor buyers

Austin has been hovering closer to balance, sometimes tipping slightly toward buyers depending on the price point and neighborhood. That means neither side is wildly in control, which honestly is healthier for everyone involved.

What this looks like in real life is important.

For buyers, it means you usually have time to think. You can compare homes. You can negotiate repairs or closing costs in many cases. You are not always competing with ten other offers. That does not mean you should drag your feet, but it does mean you get to be strategic instead of reactive.

For sellers, it means pricing matters more than ever. The days of throwing a number at the wall and seeing what sticks are gone for now. Homes that are priced well and prepared properly are still selling. Homes that are overpriced tend to sit, and sitting creates doubt, even if nothing is actually wrong with the house.

Timing is the next piece, and this is where I want to be very honest with you.

There is no perfect time. Anyone who tells you there is a magic month where everything lines up perfectly is oversimplifying it. Timing is personal. It depends on your job, your family, your finances, and your tolerance for stress.

Spring and early summer do tend to bring more activity in Austin. Families like to move before the school year, and listings pick up. Fall can still be strong, especially for serious buyers who are tired of looking. Winter is quieter, but that can work in your favor, because fewer people are competing.

What matters more than the season is alignment.

Are you buying because you are ready, or because you are scared of missing out? Are you selling because it fits your life, or because a headline made you panic? Those are very different motivations, and they lead to very different outcomes.

I see people make mistakes when they focus only on the market and ignore their own situation. I also see people miss great opportunities because they are waiting for conditions that may never feel perfect.

This is where having someone walk the numbers with you really matters. Not a generic chart, not a national headline, but your actual scenario. Your neighborhood. Your price range. Your goals.

One more thing I want you to hear clearly: a balanced market does not mean boring or bad. It means thoughtful. It means intentional. It means decisions are made with clarity instead of pressure.

Whether you are buying, selling, or just paying attention right now, understanding inventory, months of supply, and timing gives you power. It helps you ask better questions. It helps you tune out noise. It helps you move when it makes sense for you, not when social media says you should.

If you ever want to talk through what this looks like for your specific situation, I am always happy to grab coffee or hop on a call. No pressure, no sales pitch, just real conversation.